As President Trump doubles down on his trade war strategy with China, market analyst Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady offered a full-throated endorsement of the plan during an appearance on Chicago’s Morning Answer with Dan Proft and Amy Jacobson. While acknowledging the short-term market volatility, Shellady argued the confrontation with Beijing is both necessary and overdue.
Trump, speaking at a cabinet meeting earlier this week, expressed optimism that a deal with China will eventually be reached, framing the current trade impasse as a “resetting of the table.” According to Shellady, that reset is not only justified—it’s long overdue.
“We’ve treated China with kid gloves for too long,” said Shellady. “We’re still giving them most-favored-nation status at the UN. Meanwhile, they’re stealing between $500 billion and $1 trillion of our intellectual property every year.”
The discussion comes amid heightened tension between Washington and Beijing. The administration has imposed stiff new tariffs on Chinese imports while offering a 90-day pause for U.S. allies. Market watchers have reacted with alarm, but Shellady said investors need to calm down.
“This is a $32 trillion economy. We’re talking about $400 billion in tariffs. The hysteria in the markets is way overblown,” he said.
Shellady also addressed criticism that Trump’s social media posts and policy shifts amounted to market manipulation, particularly a recent sequence in which the former president urged investors to “buy, buy, buy” before announcing a tariff pause. “That’s not insider trading. He posted it publicly. It’s called a broadcast,” Shellady said bluntly. “If anything, it’s dumb that Adam Schiff didn’t buy.”
In his market outlook, Shellady predicted continued volatility in the months ahead but ultimately believes the economy will benefit from a more assertive trade posture. “Bull markets grind higher. When you see massive 3,000-point rallies in the Dow, it usually means you’re still in a bear market,” he warned.
But longer term, Shellady is optimistic. If Trump’s policies are implemented—particularly the extension of 2017’s tax cuts, strategic spending cuts, and improved trade deals with allies—Shellady believes the economy could return to 3–4% GDP growth.
“He’s not for punitive trade; he’s for fair trade,” said Shellady. “This trade war with China needs to happen. The world knows they’re the biggest abuser.”
On the broader economic picture, Shellady argued that America’s reliance on debt and consumer subsidies has reached a breaking point. He supports shifting toward production-focused policies, like ensuring access to rare earth minerals and pharmaceuticals, and reshoring key industries.
Shellady also pushed back on critics who downplay the significance of multi-trillion-dollar policies. “People in Washington throw around the word ‘trillion’ like it’s nothing,” he said, noting that burning a trillion seconds would take 31,700 years. “That’s why we’re in trouble—they don’t understand the magnitude.”
Ultimately, Shellady views the current turbulence as a necessary course correction. “Trump didn’t create this problem—he just brought it forward,” he said. “We were going to have to face this sooner or later. I’d rather deal with it now.”
As tariffs take center stage in the 2025 campaign cycle, Shellady’s message resonates with many voters who see Trump’s economic nationalism as a tough but necessary approach to restoring balance in global trade. Whether the strategy yields long-term gains will depend on the administration’s ability to balance economic risk with policy execution in the months to come.