As former President Donald Trump floats another term in the White House, his approach to trade and taxation is once again under scrutiny—this time with a renewed focus on tariffs. In a wide-ranging interview on Chicago’s Morning Answer, economist and author John Tamny criticized both Democratic and Republican support for protectionist trade measures and called into question the effectiveness of government spending reforms.
Tamny, editor of RealClearMarkets and author of The Money Confusion, pushed back on Trump’s recent signals toward increasing tariffs, arguing that any barriers to global trade inevitably harm consumers, restrict choice, and slow economic growth. Using the steel industry as an example, Tamny noted that companies like Nucor may support tariffs on some competitors but complain about others that raise their own costs—demonstrating the problem of selective protectionism.
“It’s always the same story,” Tamny said. “Tariffs create winners and losers, often within the same industry.” He explained that international supply chains are too complex and interconnected for tariffs to function cleanly, with retaliatory measures and downstream price increases harming businesses and consumers alike.
Tamny’s ideal trade policy? Zero tariffs—across the board. While acknowledging the political challenge of getting there, he argued that the current piecemeal approach only perpetuates confusion and inefficiency. “Why should Americans suffer because other countries choose to punish their own citizens with tariffs?” he asked.
Turning to manufacturing, Tamny challenged the romanticism around factory jobs lost to globalization. He pointed to a century of economic evolution and innovation, noting that cities like New York and Los Angeles have thrived after moving away from heavy industry, while places like Flint and Milwaukee have struggled. “Americans never wanted those jobs,” he argued. “They were grueling and people wanted out.”
Tamny pointed to long-term trends showing that while manufacturing employment has declined, output has surged due to automation and productivity gains—meaning fewer workers are producing more goods. He emphasized that restricting trade or subsidizing manufacturing won’t bring back jobs people don’t want, and only serves to slow progress.
On the broader economy, Tamny dismissed the usefulness of GDP as a metric, calling it “a monument to double counting” that rewards government spending as if it were productive. He noted that recent dips in GDP should not spark panic, as they often reflect trade distortions or front-running of expected policy changes.
Tamny remained optimistic overall, crediting the resilience of markets and the ingenuity of American workers. But he expressed concern over Trump’s fiscal plans, particularly the lack of serious spending reform. Even modest proposed cuts to discretionary spending—just 25% of the federal budget—are unlikely to meaningfully rein in government growth. Meanwhile, GOP lawmakers increasingly defend programs they once opposed, especially when green subsidies or healthcare funding benefit their districts.
In his upcoming book The Deficit Delusion, Tamny challenges the common belief that cutting spending will limit government. Instead, he argues that reducing government revenue is the only reliable way to shrink its size. “Any money saved through reform just gets spent somewhere else,” he said. “That’s how bad ideas become permanent programs.”
As debates over tariffs, taxes, and federal debt heat up, Tamny’s warning is clear: political convenience often trumps economic logic—and unless that changes, Americans may continue paying the price.