As negotiations continue over the Republican tax and spending package dubbed the “Big Beautiful Bill,” conservative policy expert Phil Kerpen joined Chicago’s Morning Answer to dissect the current political and economic landscape, highlighting both the urgency and the potential roadblocks facing the legislation.
Kerpen, president of American Commitment and a leading voice at the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, emphasized the pressure to deliver tax relief before tariffs reimpose further strain on the economy. He noted that the U.S. is already 28 days into a 90-day tariff pause, with no formal trade agreements yet finalized. This looming deadline adds urgency to finalizing the GOP’s legislative package, which includes tax cut extensions and regulatory reform.
Kerpen warned that failure to act quickly could mean higher costs for both consumers and businesses. While trade accounts for roughly 30% of the economy, he argued the tax bill impacts 100%, making it vital to proceed. He pointed out that the 2016 GOP platform pledged that any tariff revenue would be used to offset other taxes, ensuring Americans aren’t hit with a net increase in their tax burden.
One of the biggest sticking points for House Republicans remains the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap. Kerpen explained that a handful of GOP members from high-tax blue states are pushing for higher SALT caps, despite the policy being widely seen by conservatives as a subsidy for wealthy taxpayers in states like New York and California. Kerpen criticized this effort, calling it both poor policy and poor politics. He recounted a recent example where Rep. Mike Lawler of New York moved the goalposts after receiving initial support from former President Trump, asking for a much higher cap than originally proposed.
Meanwhile, on the regulatory and welfare reform front, Kerpen praised the inclusion of measures like the REINS Act, which would require congressional approval for major new regulations. He also urged Republicans to follow the model of the 1996 welfare reform—adding work requirements and devolving control to the states. While Medicaid continues to grow, Kerpen noted that proposed reforms are often met with misleading media backlash, despite the fact that federal Medicaid spending increases annually.
Kerpen also highlighted Trump’s recent budget proposal to cut federal Section 8 housing support by 40%, returning control to the states. Though not part of the current bill, Kerpen sees this as a potentially transformational policy. He argued that empowering states and instituting work requirements across federal aid programs could dramatically improve efficiency and outcomes, especially for truly needy recipients.
He warned that if Republicans fail to unite around the current package, Democrats may have an opening to craft a bipartisan alternative that includes tax hikes and more federal control. Kerpen stressed that the stakes are high, particularly for families relying on the child tax credit and small businesses that could be hit if existing cuts expire.
Ultimately, Kerpen called on conservatives to hold firm on both tax and welfare reforms. With a razor-thin majority in the House, GOP leadership will need near-total consensus to move the bill forward. If they succeed, it could be one of the most significant legislative accomplishments of the year. If they fail, Kerpen warned, the results could be politically and economically damaging.