Economist Stephen Moore issued a stark warning on Chicago’s Morning Answer this week: House Republicans are in danger of squandering their moment to rein in federal spending—and only Donald Trump has the clout to put the brakes on a runaway budget process that risks alienating the party’s conservative base.
Speaking with host Dan Proft and guest co-host Jeanne Ives, Moore expressed deep frustration over the so-called “big beautiful bill” currently taking shape in Congress. While Republicans talk tough on spending, he argued, many are quick to cave when it comes to popular subsidies and special-interest carveouts—most notably, the return of generous state and local tax (SALT) deductions that would largely benefit wealthy blue-state residents.
Moore, who helped craft the original Trump tax plan with Larry Kudlow, slammed efforts by a small group of House Republicans to lift the SALT deduction cap. The deduction, he argued, incentivizes high-tax states like Illinois to overspend and shift the burden to federal taxpayers.
“The idea that we’re going to triple, quadruple, or eliminate the SALT cap just to give tax breaks to rich people in New York and Illinois is insane,” Moore said. “It’s bad policy and terrible optics.”
Republicans Behaving Like Democrats
Moore gave the current GOP proposal a B-minus grade, “and that’s grading on a curve,” he said. The most egregious failure, he added, is the party’s unwillingness to go after low-hanging fruit like solar and wind subsidies—programs long criticized by conservatives as wasteful and ineffective.
Moore ridiculed the GOP’s inability to eliminate green energy handouts, joking that even Senator Elon Musk’s growing unpopularity on the left hasn’t helped Republicans muster the political will to defund electric vehicle subsidies. “If you can’t get rid of a program now, you’ll never get rid of it,” Moore said.
Referencing longtime frustrations from the Reagan era to now, Moore likened the GOP’s budget strategy to a punchline: Democrats propose burning down the Capitol, and Republicans agree to phase it in over three years.
Fiscal Fantasyland
The numbers Moore cited were sobering. Under the Democratic baseline, the U.S. is projected to spend $89 trillion over the next decade. Under the GOP’s “austere” proposal? $87 trillion. That $2 trillion “cut” is less than a rounding error, Moore said, and hardly the kind of fiscal discipline conservatives demand.
“Republicans are playing Santa Claus just like Democrats do,” he said. “The truth is, most of them don’t want to cut spending.”
Medicaid reform—a major target for long-term budget savings—has also been largely abandoned. Instead of tightening eligibility or reducing fraud, GOP lawmakers are retreating in the face of media pressure and Democrat attacks accusing them of gutting health care access for the poor.
Moore also called attention to a staggering statistic: Government auditors estimate over $400 billion is wasted annually through improper or fraudulent payments across entitlement programs.
Trump’s Role: Time to Step In
Moore was clear: if there’s any hope of turning the tide, it will take direct leadership from Donald Trump. So far, Trump has remained quiet on the spending battle, as he continues his international trip. But Moore warned that time is running out.
“This will be a defining moment for Trump’s second term, if he wins,” Moore said. “If he doesn’t weigh in and rally Republicans around real spending cuts, we’re going to end up with a budget that looks almost identical to Biden’s.”
Jeanne Ives noted that this moment echoes the warnings in Senator Ron Johnson’s recent op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, where Johnson decried Republicans’ failure to address the deficit. Moore praised Johnson as one of the few senators who still takes spending seriously, along with names like Mike Lee, Rand Paul, and Ted Cruz.
“There are maybe a dozen senators who want to cut spending,” Moore said. “The rest are just as happy to keep the gravy train rolling.”
Russ Vought and the Budget Battle
There is one glimmer of hope, Moore added: Russ Vought, Trump’s former OMB director and architect of the Project 2025 fiscal blueprint. Moore said Vought understands the structural problems in the budget and knows where the waste lies.
But even Vought can’t change the political dynamics on his own.
“Russ’s budget was fantastic. The problem is Republicans threw it out and started from scratch,” Moore said. “Unless Trump gets behind it and pushes hard, it’s going nowhere.”
Moore’s Prescription: Go Bold or Go Home
Moore ended the conversation with a radical but simple solution: abolish itemized deductions entirely, lower tax rates, and move toward a flat tax. Most Americans no longer itemize, he said, and eliminating deductions like SALT could fund broader tax relief for everyone.
“That’s the real conservative vision,” Moore said. “And we’re not even close to it right now.”
Whether Trump steps up—or Congress continues to drift—will determine whether the Republican Party regains its fiscal credibility or caves to political convenience.
“Right now,” Moore concluded, “we’re fiddling while Rome burns.”