President Trump’s renewed warning to Iran during his State of the Union address has sharpened focus on what may be a narrowing diplomatic window between Washington and Tehran.
In his remarks to Congress, Trump reiterated that the United States will not permit Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon, framing the issue as a matter of national and global security. While expressing a preference for diplomacy, he emphasized what he described as “peace through strength,” pointing to a rebuilt U.S. military and a recently approved $1 trillion defense budget.
The speech came amid reports that Iran’s foreign minister has characterized the country’s military capabilities, including its nuclear program, as non-negotiable. That posture suggests an impasse as negotiations continue behind the scenes.
Clifford May, president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times, said Trump appears intent on demonstrating that diplomatic avenues are being exhausted before any potential military action.
“He wants to make very clear that he is exhausting all possibilities for a peaceful settlement,” May said during an appearance on Chicago’s Morning Answer. “But if it becomes obvious that the regime in Tehran is not going to make the necessary concessions, then I think he will use some of the military assets he has in place.”
May suggested that any military response could begin with limited strikes on selected targets, followed by renewed demands for compliance. At the core of U.S. demands, he said, is a categorical commitment from Iran that it will never develop nuclear weapons or the long-range missiles capable of delivering them.
The question of whether Washington seeks regime change remains less clear. May cautioned that while many Iranians oppose their government, removing a regime through airstrikes alone is unlikely.
“There’s no way to bomb your way into regime change,” he said, noting that organized opposition movements face severe repression under Iran’s leadership. Instead, he argued that the U.S. could seek to neutralize Iran’s offensive and defensive capabilities, limiting its ability to project power without directly attempting to engineer political transformation from the outside.
The broader geopolitical landscape also shapes calculations. Russia and China maintain strategic relationships with Tehran, but May said their support has limits. Moscow, preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, lacks the capacity to intervene militarily on Iran’s behalf, while Beijing is unlikely to risk direct confrontation with U.S. forces in the region.
“They will help where they can,” May said of Russia and China, “but there are limits to what they’re willing to do.”
May described Iran as part of what he calls an “axis of aggressors,” alongside Russia, China, and North Korea. These nations cooperate diplomatically and militarily, but he emphasized that their partnership does not amount to an unlimited alliance.
The conversation also turned to the state of U.S. military preparedness. While Trump highlighted the strength of American forces, some defense analysts argue that the U.S. must modernize its arsenal to meet evolving threats.
May pointed to commentary from defense industry leaders who advocate for a mix of high-end systems and more affordable, rapidly producible weapons, including drones. He said the war in Ukraine has underscored the importance of adapting quickly to technological change.
“Some of the most effective weapons are drones,” May noted, adding that real-world combat experience accelerates innovation in ways simulations cannot replicate.
He also raised concerns about adversaries gaining battlefield experience. North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine are acquiring combat knowledge that could later be applied on the Korean Peninsula. Similarly, non-state actors and criminal organizations have shown interest in emerging technologies, including unmanned systems.
May argued that a decisive approach to conflict can shorten wars, warning that partial measures or negotiated stalemates can prolong instability. Drawing on historical examples, he said unresolved conflicts often reemerge when adversaries believe they have not been conclusively defeated.
As tensions with Iran continue, the administration’s strategy appears to hinge on a final test of diplomacy backed by the credible threat of force. Whether Tehran calculates that it must concede or instead chooses escalation could determine whether the standoff remains a negotiation or moves toward confrontation.
For now, May said, the message from Washington is unambiguous: the United States will not accept a nuclear-armed Iran, and it is prepared to act if diplomacy fails.