On the heels of Earth Day celebrations and increasing political debate over energy policy, Danish author and economist Bjorn Lomborg joined Chicago’s Morning Answer to offer a dose of realism about the future of fossil fuels, climate policy, and the limitations of windmills and electric vehicles. Lomborg, president of the Copenhagen Consensus think tank and author of Best Things First, argued that innovation—not utopian green mandates—will lead the way forward.
The conversation was sparked by two fiery monologues from the recent hit series Land Man, in which characters played by Billy Bob Thornton and Jon Hamm dismantle the illusion that renewables are ready to replace fossil fuels. While dramatized, the speeches hit on many of the same issues Lomborg has raised for years: the global economy runs on fossil fuels, and cutting that supply too fast risks catastrophe for billions of people.
Fossil Fuels Still Feed the World
“Most artificial fertilizer comes from natural gas,” Lomborg explained. “That fertilizer feeds half the world’s population. So when people say ‘just stop oil,’ they’re literally saying stop 4 billion people from being able to survive.”
Despite the popular refrain that we’re running out of oil, Lomborg said that’s simply not true. Nor is it true, he added, that solar panels and wind turbines can provide reliable baseload energy without major backup. Even with decades of subsidies and mandates, renewables have failed to deliver energy on demand at the scale industrial economies require.
“The reality is, wind and solar require near 100% backup from other sources,” Lomborg said. “And that makes them expensive.”
Prosperity, Not Panic
In his Earth Day speech at Yale University, Lomborg emphasized how environmental progress has historically come from prosperity, not panic. “In 1970, rivers caught on fire. Cities were choked with pollution,” he said. “Now, especially in the developed world, we’ve cleaned up most of our act. Why? Because we’re rich enough to afford it.”
Poverty, on the other hand, is the greatest environmental risk. He noted that indoor air pollution—caused by cooking with dung, wood, and cardboard—once killed over 7 million people annually. Thanks to access to cleaner fuels, that number has dropped by more than 4 million. But the fight isn’t over, particularly for people in sub-Saharan Africa who use less energy in a year than Americans use in a week.
Telling the developing world to leapfrog fossil fuels is, in Lomborg’s view, a recipe for keeping them poor.
On Innovation, Not Elimination
Rather than forcing radical reductions in energy use, Lomborg believes we should be focused on technological innovation—capitalism’s true strength.
“Catalytic converters, not car bans, solved Los Angeles’ smog crisis,” he said. “And that’s the model we should be applying today.”
He also responded to critics who say countries like the U.S. have a moral obligation to “lead” on climate by going net zero. Germany tried that, spending $700 billion over 15 years—and barely reduced its fossil fuel usage. “Nobody is looking to copy Germany right now,” he added.
Electric Vehicles and Empty Promises
Lomborg also weighed in on the growing public backlash to aggressive electric vehicle (EV) mandates, such as those modeled after California’s ban on new gas-powered cars. Maryland’s Democratic governor recently backed away from an EV mandate, acknowledging the limitations in infrastructure and consumer demand.
“EVs are great for some people, but not for everyone,” Lomborg said. “If you live in an apartment, where are you going to charge your car at night?”
Policy Must Serve People
Ultimately, Lomborg argued that environmental policy must serve people—not the other way around. He warned against unrealistic central planning that prioritizes optics over results and emphasized that innovation, driven by free markets, remains our best hope for a cleaner, wealthier future.
“If you want to help the environment, help people get out of poverty,” he concluded. “That’s what capitalism and innovation do best.”
Bjorn Lomborg’s work continues at the Copenhagen Consensus Center, and his latest book, Best Things First, offers a roadmap for using limited resources to achieve the greatest good worldwide.