As trade officials from the United States and China prepare for face-to-face talks in Switzerland, one expert on China is warning that the economic fallout from U.S. tariffs has already pushed the Chinese Communist regime to the brink. Steven Mosher, president of the Population Research Institute and a leading authority on Chinese affairs, joined Chicago’s Morning Answer to argue that China is losing the trade war—and that the West should press its advantage.
“China is in dire shape,” said Mosher, citing the dramatic drop in exports to the United States, shuttered factories, and surging domestic unrest. According to Mosher, Chinese ports are now clogged with unsold goods that were intended for U.S. consumers but are now effectively priced out of the market due to tariffs. The containers sit idle, as shipping contracts are canceled and bulk orders from the West disappear.
While the United States imports only about 16% of China’s exports, Mosher noted that these shipments account for over half of the profits from China’s export sector. “We buy in bulk and we pay on time,” Mosher explained. “Without us, their export sector is toast—and nothing else in their economy works.”
Compounding the crisis, Mosher said, are domestic challenges. Youth unemployment is soaring, with half of recent college graduates unable to find work. Construction giants have collapsed, demographic trends are worsening due to decades of the one-child policy, and civil unrest is growing. Mosher compared the current state of China to the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1989, warning that President Xi Jinping may be facing a similar internal reckoning.
“The regime is brittle,” Mosher said, adding that senior Chinese Communist Party officials may be positioning themselves to remove Xi and seek rapprochement with the U.S. to avoid economic collapse.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government is already showing signs of blinking. According to Mosher, Beijing has preemptively lifted tariffs on more than 130 U.S. imports in a desperate bid to maintain trade flow. Xi also recently visited Vladimir Putin, which Mosher believes is an effort to escalate global conflict and distract from his domestic troubles.
“Xi would love to see a broader war that draws in NATO and diverts American focus,” Mosher warned. “That would make it easier for him to attempt something drastic, like moving on Taiwan.”
Still, Mosher doubts the People’s Liberation Army is capable of invading Taiwan successfully—at least not yet. The logistical challenges of amphibious warfare, the limited landing points on Taiwan, and Taiwan’s own preparedness make a full-scale assault unlikely in the short term. However, Mosher did raise concerns about a possible Chinese blockade of Taiwan’s ports, particularly to cut off shipments of semiconductors to the U.S.
“They only have about two weeks of energy reserves on the island,” he said. “A blockade would be an act of war, and the U.S. would need to respond.”
One of the most chilling elements of the conversation came when Mosher revealed that China had offered to curb its fentanyl exports—but only if the U.S. reduces tariffs. After years of denying any role in the fentanyl crisis, which has killed tens of thousands of Americans annually, Mosher said China is now effectively using the drug trade as a bargaining chip.
“They’re ransoming the lives of our children in exchange for trade concessions,” Mosher said. “This is an ongoing chemical weapons attack on the United States.”
Looking ahead to the U.S.-China meetings in Switzerland, Mosher expressed skepticism about any deal being reached. While China may make promises, he said, their track record shows those promises are rarely honored. He urged the U.S. to maintain or even increase tariffs and to resist any efforts to bail out the regime.
“This may be the best opportunity we’ll ever have to see the Chinese Communist Party collapse,” Mosher said. “We should not let up now.”
Mosher’s warnings echo growing concerns in Washington and among U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific. With trade policy now firmly at the center of the geopolitical chessboard, the outcome of these high-level talks could shape global relations for years to come.
As for now, Mosher believes the choice is clear: keep the pressure on, and let the CCP collapse under the weight of its own failures.