Despite headline-grabbing layoff announcements and confusing federal jobs reports, the U.S. economy is stronger and more dynamic than it appears, says James Perry, founder and CIO of Perry International Capital Partners. On Chicago’s Morning Answer, Perry told host Dan Proft that investors and analysts should look past the Department of Labor’s monthly employment numbers—calling them “garbage”—and focus instead on real economic signals like corporate earnings, global capital flows, and the unprecedented acceleration in artificial intelligence investment.
Proft opened the discussion by highlighting major layoffs across corporate America: UPS shedding 48,000 workers, Verizon cutting 13,000, Amazon eliminating 14,000, and mass layoff notices reaching their second-highest level since the pandemic. At the same time, federal jobs data remain erratic, with frequent and dramatic revisions that swing monthly figures from job gains to job losses. Perry said none of this is surprising, and even seasoned analysts largely ignore the federal numbers. The surveys used to generate them, he noted, rely on outdated landline calls and incomplete sampling that “miss around 20 million off-the-books workers,” including many recent immigrants.
The more instructive reality, Perry argued, is that the U.S. economy remains at full employment with millions of jobs going unfilled, even as certain sectors undergo rapid disruption. Layoffs at major companies often reflect restructuring, automation, and seasonal adjustments—not broad economic weakness. Meanwhile, GDP growth remains robust, with the Atlanta Fed estimating fourth-quarter activity over 4 percent and projecting more than 5 percent growth in early 2025. “The market isn’t trading off the jobs reports,” Perry said. “The economy is telling a completely different story.”
Much of that story centers around artificial intelligence. Perry described the AI boom as the largest capital investment cycle in American history, with projected spending approaching $4 trillion by the end of the year, including more than $1 trillion in data center construction alone. Far from speculative froth, he said, these investments are already showing up in corporate earnings reports, where profit margins across the S&P 500 rose sharply last quarter—and nearly 30 percent in the tech sector.
Despite a recent pullback in markets, Perry said investors like him remain heavily invested in equities, especially technology and defense. With the S&P still up double digits on the year and long-term market gains stretching back to the financial crisis, he sees the recent dip as routine profit-taking rather than a warning sign. “This is one of the most remarkable runs we’ve ever had,” he said. “Long-term investors aren’t selling because the market drops five percent in a month.”
On cryptocurrency, Perry offered a measured view. Though he prefers physical gold to Bitcoin, he acknowledged that blockchain technology and stablecoins are spreading rapidly—especially in developing countries grappling with unstable currencies. He cited comments from AI and fintech leaders predicting that crypto-based systems will help workers in high-inflation countries preserve their wages and transact in U.S. dollar–backed digital assets. Perry emphasized that no one truly knows how to value Bitcoin, but its expanding use as financial infrastructure may bolster its long-term relevance.
Zooming out, Perry said global markets reflect rising productivity, increasing wages, and exceptional corporate strength across sectors. International investors are pouring capital into the U.S. at unprecedented levels, and despite geopolitical turmoil, the dollar remains the world’s most trusted currency. In his view, the next decade could mirror the last fifteen years of extraordinary market gains. “The stock market could double in the next five to seven years,” he said. “Not because of hype, but because earnings are driving it.”
Even with layoffs in the headlines and flawed government metrics muddying the waters, Perry said the fundamentals are clear: “The AI industrial revolution is just getting started—and the numbers support it.”