Appearing on Chicago’s Morning Answer, National Review senior writer Noah Rothman broke down two major storylines shaping American politics: President Trump’s escalating campaign against narcotics traffickers in the Caribbean, and a warning sign buried in Tennessee’s special congressional election. Both, he argued, reveal vulnerabilities the GOP must address ahead of 2026.
Drug-Boat Strikes: A Popular Policy Facing Serious Oversight Questions
Host Dan Proft played audio of President Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth defending the administration’s lethal strikes on high-speed narco-trafficker boats. Trump was blunt, promising to “take out those son of a—” as long as the cartel fleets attempt to reach U.S. shores. Hegseth followed with a detailed—and fiery—defense of the intelligence and legal vetting behind each strike.
Despite press-fueled controversy over a September mission that allegedly involved a second “kill shot,” Rothman said public sentiment remains overwhelmingly behind Trump.
“This is like a 75–80% issue the president’s way,” he noted.
But that doesn’t mean the administration is in the clear.
Rothman warned that Congress still hasn’t been fully briefed on the evidence behind these strikes.
“If you have all this intelligence,” he said, “provide it to Congress in a classified setting. The next Congress will be coming for them. They need their ducks in a row.”
Future congressional scrutiny is all but guaranteed—especially if Trump’s warnings about striking “on land” in Venezuela shift from rhetoric to reality. Any operation inside Venezuelan territory, Rothman said, would require not just legal justification but explicit congressional approval.
A Regime-Change Debate the GOP Isn’t Ready For
Trump’s pressure campaign on Nicolás Maduro hints at a larger strategy many observers see as a modernized Monroe Doctrine: stabilize Venezuela, slow migrant flows, weaken anti-U.S. regimes in Cuba and Nicaragua, diminish Russian and Chinese footholds, and potentially repatriate Venezuelan refugees once free elections return.
Rothman acknowledged the logic—but also the political traps.
He said many of the Republicans who would have to support such a strategy have spent the past decade condemning regime-change interventions like Iraq and would now need to defend something that “sounds very similar.”
“I would welcome them making that argument,” Rothman said. “But it smacks of policies they’ve been skeptical of for years.”
Tennessee’s Special Election: A 9-Point Win That Feels Like a Loss
The conversation shifted to politics at home, where a high-turnout special election in Tennessee’s 7th District raised eyebrows. Republican candidate Jody Barrett defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by nine points—a comfortable win, but far below the district’s normal GOP margin.
“Not disastrous,” Rothman said. “But not good.”
He noted that former Rep. Mark Green won the district by 22 points in 2022. Trump carried it by more than 20. A nine-point margin represents a dramatic shift.
“If that swing were uniform in 2026, Republicans would lose 40 House seats,” Rothman warned.
Part of the problem, he said, is that Democrats—even far-left candidates—are outperforming expectations because of one dominant issue.
The GOP’s Affordability Problem
Rothman argued that Republicans are losing the messaging battle on cost-of-living concerns. Even if the Trump administration has quietly made progress on wages and inflation-adjusted income, voters don’t feel it—and Republicans aren’t explaining it.
“The affordability debate in this country drives me nuts,” he said.
Democrats, he explained, promise aggressive government intervention—subsidies, price controls, new welfare programs. Republicans, meanwhile, offer a muddled, hesitant mix of market philosophy and scaled-down subsidies.
“It’s a lighter version of the Democratic Party’s answer. And voters will pick the party that seems more confident.”
Rothman criticized GOP timidity about the BBB tax-cut bill—now renamed and rarely discussed by Republicans themselves.
“They should be talking about tax relief a lot more, but they seem intimidated by it,” he said. “It’s a bizarre Frankenstein hybrid—big spending and tax cuts together. It satisfies nobody.”
A Warning for 2026
Rothman’s conclusion was direct: Republicans must present a coherent economic message and a clearly articulated strategy abroad—or risk losing winnable races.
“Standing in the middle of the road,” he said, “means getting hit by traffic going both ways.”
Noah Rothman’s new book, Blood and Progress: A Century of Left-Wing Violence in America, is due out soon.