Concerns about global oil disruptions tied to the conflict with Iran may be overstated when it comes to the United States, according to economist Stephen Moore, who says America’s current energy production levels leave the country far less vulnerable than in past decades.
Moore said the United States is now producing more oil and natural gas than any other country, including Saudi Arabia, which significantly reduces the economic risk posed by instability in the Middle East.
“We are today the biggest single-country producer of oil and gas in the world,” Moore said. “The more energy we produce here at home, the less dependent we are on the Middle East.”
The discussion comes as policymakers and energy analysts debate whether disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could create a global oil supply shock. The narrow waterway is one of the world’s most critical shipping routes for crude oil exports.
Some officials have suggested that international reserves, including those managed by the International Energy Agency, could be tapped if supply shortages develop. The IEA maintains emergency reserves totaling more than a billion barrels across member nations.
Moore said the broader lesson from repeated crises in the region is that the United States should focus on maximizing domestic production to insulate the economy from geopolitical shocks.
“Every time there’s turmoil in the Middle East it sends shockwaves through the global economy,” Moore said. “The best solution is to produce as much oil and gas as we possibly can here in the United States.”
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has also become part of the conversation about potential responses to energy disruptions. The reserve, created in the 1970s after the Arab oil embargo, was designed to provide emergency supply during major crises.
Moore criticized the Biden administration’s use of the reserve in 2022, when hundreds of millions of barrels were released as gasoline prices surged.
He argued that the drawdown was not tied to a national emergency but rather to an effort to lower fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections.
“The reserve was drained significantly even though there wasn’t a true emergency,” Moore said. “The crisis was political.”
Moore added that some reports now suggest the reserve’s infrastructure has been strained by the large withdrawals, potentially limiting the ability to release additional oil quickly.
While some analysts have proposed selling oil from the reserve at current high prices and repurchasing it later at lower prices, Moore said the ultimate solution is simply expanding U.S. energy production.
That strategy, he said, has already helped shield the American economy from the kind of shortages that defined earlier energy crises.
Moore recalled the fuel lines of the late 1970s, when Americans waited hours to fill their tanks during the Carter-era energy crisis.
“Back then we were highly dependent on foreign oil,” Moore said. “Today we’re in a completely different position.”
Beyond energy markets, Moore also addressed concerns about recent economic data showing slower job growth. A recent employment report indicated weaker-than-expected hiring, raising questions about the strength of the labor market.
Moore acknowledged the report was disappointing but said several structural factors may be affecting workforce participation.
One major factor is demographics. With baby boomers retiring in large numbers, the United States is losing workers faster than new employees are entering the labor force.
Moore said roughly 11,000 Americans retire each day while about 8,000 workers enter the labor market, creating a net loss of available labor.
“That’s a demographic reality we have to deal with,” he said.
Moore also pointed to what he described as a growing mismatch between the skills taught in colleges and the needs of employers.
Many graduates, he argued, leave school without practical skills that businesses are seeking in areas such as technology and engineering.
“We’re graduating kids from college who often don’t have the skills employers need,” Moore said.
At the same time, he said debates about immigration policy have become intertwined with labor shortages. Moore argued that while criminal offenders should be deported, policymakers should also consider ways to allow non-criminal workers to remain in the labor force.
Despite the recent weak jobs report and geopolitical uncertainty, Moore said the U.S. economy still has significant long-term strengths.
He pointed to decades of rising wealth across all income groups as evidence that the American economic system continues to generate broad prosperity.
Even though wealth has grown faster among the highest earners, Moore noted that lower- and middle-income households have also seen substantial gains.
“If you look over the last fifty years, every income group has experienced significant increases in wealth,” he said.
Moore argued that policies encouraging investment and economic growth remain essential to maintaining that trend.
He also highlighted the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s landmark economic work “The Wealth of Nations,” which helped shape modern free-market theory and was published in the same year as the Declaration of Independence.
Moore said the coincidence reflects the deep connection between economic freedom and political liberty that has shaped the American system for centuries.
“The principles of economic freedom have been central to prosperity and opportunity,” Moore said.
Even with geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, Moore said the underlying strength of the U.S. economy remains tied to those core ideas of free markets, innovation, and energy independence.