As the United States and its allies intensify military pressure on Iran, one national security expert says the campaign is rapidly diminishing the regime’s ability to respond militarily while raising broader questions about the future of Iran’s leadership and regional stability.
Steven Bucci, a former Army Special Forces officer and Pentagon official who now serves as a visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation, said recent operations targeting Iranian military assets appear to be steadily weakening the country’s capacity to project force.
According to Bucci, Iranian naval and missile capabilities have already been significantly degraded in the early stages of the campaign.
“They’re running out of capability to fight back,” Bucci said. “Most of their ships and boats have been destroyed, and they have very few launchers left.”
The developments come amid heightened global concern about the potential impact of the conflict on international energy markets and commercial shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor for global oil shipments.
Senior U.S. officials have attempted to reassure markets that energy supplies will continue flowing despite the conflict. Defense and energy leaders have indicated that the United States is prepared to secure maritime traffic in the region if necessary.
Bucci said the administration’s focus on maintaining open shipping lanes reflects the broader strategic planning that typically accompanies military operations of this scale.
“Before something like this begins, there’s a lot of analysis done about what it means for global trade and energy markets,” he said. “You have to consider everything from military targets to insurance markets and shipping risks.”
The issue of maritime insurance has become an important factor in determining whether commercial vessels are willing to travel through the region during periods of conflict. Bucci noted that the involvement of insurers such as Lloyd’s of London plays a key role in determining whether shipping companies consider routes safe enough to operate.
While the conflict has prompted warnings about potential spikes in global oil prices, some analysts believe the United States’ expanding domestic energy production could help cushion the economic impact.
Bucci said the administration’s focus on increasing energy independence is part of a broader strategic approach that aims to reduce vulnerability to disruptions in overseas energy supplies.
Beyond the economic implications, Bucci emphasized that the military campaign itself appears to be progressing effectively from an operational standpoint.
“I don’t see any major mistakes so far,” he said, though he acknowledged that civilian casualties remain a serious concern in any conflict.
Reports that a school may have been struck during the fighting illustrate the kind of tragic incidents that can occur even during highly precise military operations.
“Even when you try very hard to avoid civilian targets, mistakes can happen,” Bucci said. “Those kinds of events can have major consequences in terms of public opinion and political reaction.”
Bucci also addressed the possibility of a shift in Iran’s leadership following the weakening of the current regime’s military position. With speculation growing about the potential rise of the late supreme leader’s son as a successor, he said such a development could further destabilize the country’s political structure.
“If that happens, it will be interesting to see how the world reacts,” Bucci said. “It could create a situation where leadership changes rapidly or where internal power struggles intensify.”
Despite the progress reported by U.S. officials, Bucci cautioned that policymakers must remain careful to avoid actions that could unintentionally strengthen support for the Iranian government among its own population.
Maintaining that balance, he said, is particularly important when considering whether ground forces might ever be deployed in the region.
The possibility of sending American troops into Iran has been widely debated, though Bucci noted that such a move would present significant logistical and political challenges.
Iran’s large size and difficult terrain would make a ground campaign complex, even if U.S. forces possess overwhelming technological advantages.
“Could American forces defeat them on the ground? Yes,” Bucci said. “But it wouldn’t be easy simply because of the size of the country and the geography.”
For now, Bucci believes the current strategy of air dominance and targeted strikes is achieving its objectives without requiring a broader military commitment.
With Iranian missile launchers, naval vessels, and other military assets steadily being destroyed, he said the regime’s remaining options appear increasingly limited.
“They’re approaching the point where they’ll have very little ability left to defend themselves,” Bucci said.
At that stage, he said, the pressure on Iran’s leadership could intensify dramatically as military capabilities decline and internal political tensions grow.
“We’re not there yet,” Bucci said. “But we’re moving in that direction.”