Inflation-adjusted wages have risen for five straight quarters, according to new Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing private-sector compensation outpacing price growth by a small but measurable margin. Yet Americans remain overwhelmingly negative about the state of the economy. Sixty percent say the country is on the wrong track, and affordability remains the defining concern in nearly every national poll.
On Chicago’s Morning Answer, host Dan Proft asked why the official numbers paint a rosier picture than the lived reality for most households. Former HUD Secretary Scott Turner recently pointed to pressures created by illegal immigration, arguing that millions of new arrivals have strained the housing supply and contributed to rising rents. But economist and market analyst Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady told the program the underlying issue is much larger than immigration or wage growth.
Shellady said the public’s frustration is inseparable from what has happened to asset prices since 2020. Trillions in COVID-era stimulus pushed inflation to a 40-year high and sent the value of land, homes, and equities soaring. Those gains benefited asset holders, not renters or young families trying to enter the housing market. A house priced at $250,000 just a few years ago can now sell for $750,000, he said, leaving first-time buyers feeling locked out of the most stabilizing form of wealth creation available to middle-class Americans.
“Affordability is the problem. Only about a quarter of homes fall into the affordable category now,” Shellady explained. With rents rising and grocery bills up dramatically from pre-pandemic levels, households without property or investments have absorbed the full force of inflation without a corresponding increase in wealth.
Shellady argued that even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates—and he expects political pressure on the Fed to intensify—it could backfire by stimulating demand and driving home prices higher still. Lower mortgage rates may help with monthly payments, but buyers would be financing far more expensive properties. “You might get a five-and-a-half percent mortgage,” he said, “but instead of borrowing $300,000, you might be borrowing $450,000.”
National economic indicators look strong on paper. GDP growth is robust, unemployment remains low, and corporate earnings are healthy. Shellady acknowledged these positives but said they largely benefit the top 20 percent of earners who already own the assets that have appreciated. For everyone else, the daily experience is defined by higher prices for food, insurance, and rent—and the psychological fear that they may never climb into the property-owning class.
Polls reflect that anxiety. A majority of Americans believe their children will be worse off financially than their parents. Nearly three-quarters rate the economy as fair or poor. Even attitudes toward capitalism show signs of deterioration, with many respondents undecided or open to socialism. Shellady believes this trend will continue, because voters battered by inflation are increasingly receptive to promises of government assistance.
He also warned that inflation’s decline has been misunderstood. Prices have not fallen; the rate of increase has slowed. “It’s like saying I’m getting less fat,” he joked. Compounded inflation now means that items that cost $100 in 2020 often cost $150 or more today. Meanwhile, insurance costs—home, auto, and health—have jumped sharply, eating up household budgets in ways that lower gas prices cannot offset.
Proft and Shellady also discussed trade policy following former President Trump’s announcement that Nvidia will be allowed to sell high-end chips to approved customers in China in exchange for a 25 percent profit share with the U.S. government. Shellady said China is unlikely to purchase the chips anyway and remains skeptical of allowing any sensitive technology to flow to what he considers a clear adversary.
The conversation closed with a look at the administration’s $12 billion aid package for farmers. Columnist Kim Strassel recently argued that tariff pressures mask a deeper problem: a subsidy-driven agricultural structure overly reliant on a handful of export crops. Shellady said the real issue is soaring input costs—fertilizer, seed, labor, fuel—driven by multi-year inflation. Farmers are “price takers” on both ends of their business, he explained, and while crop prices fluctuate, the costs of producing those crops only move one direction.
“We need to address input prices, not output prices,” he said, arguing that the latest bailout misunderstands the structural challenge growers face.
As the macroeconomic numbers continue to impress, the political mood stubbornly refuses to budge. Shellady’s explanation suggests that until price pressures on everyday necessities ease—and until Americans regain a sense that homeownership is achievable—no amount of economic messaging will convince most people that better days have arrived.