As the U.S. military campaign against Iran continues, early battlefield developments suggest a conflict that has unfolded very differently from many of the dire scenarios analysts predicted for decades, according to commentator Noah Rothman.
Speaking during a recent discussion of the ongoing operation, Rothman said that while the conflict is far from finished, the military situation so far has produced outcomes that contrast sharply with long-standing war game projections involving a direct confrontation with Iran.
“For the better part of 25 or 30 years, analysts have run simulations of a full-scale conflict with Iran,” Rothman said. “Those simulations generally predicted catastrophic losses and a failure to achieve our objectives. That’s not what we’re seeing right now.”
President Donald Trump has alternated between celebratory rhetoric and more cautious messaging about the campaign. During a rally in Kentucky, he declared the conflict effectively won, but later acknowledged that additional work remains to meet military objectives.
Military officials have similarly emphasized that operations are ongoing, including continued strikes on Iran’s missile production facilities, drone manufacturing infrastructure, and other strategic assets.
Rothman said the initial phase of the conflict has already degraded some of Iran’s most threatening capabilities, particularly its ballistic missile forces.
“The ballistic missile threat has declined dramatically since the start of the conflict,” he said. “That was always the most serious threat in terms of both range and destructive power.”
Iran has continued launching drones against targets in the Gulf region, but Rothman characterized many of those strikes as limited harassment rather than coordinated strategic attacks.
“These drone strikes are sporadic,” he said. “They’re capable of doing real damage when they hit infrastructure targets, but they’re not the kind of swarming attacks that were widely anticipated.”
The conflict has also affected shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy transit routes. While Iran has deployed naval mines and other disruptive tactics, Rothman noted that financial and insurance concerns have played a significant role in slowing tanker traffic.
“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz right now is not just a military problem,” he said. “It’s also an insurance and financial issue. The risk environment has made it difficult for shipping companies to operate there.”
Iran has long threatened to close the strait during a major confrontation, and military planners have anticipated tactics such as minefields, missile strikes, and swarms of small attack boats targeting commercial and military vessels.
So far, however, Rothman said Iran’s actions have not matched the scale of those earlier forecasts.
“We expected hundreds of mines to be placed indiscriminately throughout the strait,” he said. “That hasn’t happened.”
The conflict has also entered a second phase focused on weakening the Iranian regime’s internal stability, including strikes on facilities associated with government security forces.
According to Rothman, that strategy aims to intensify tensions within Iran while encouraging internal opposition movements.
“The objective now is to increase pressure on the regime itself,” he said. “That includes creating conditions where internal unrest could complicate the regime’s ability to maintain control.”
Even if those goals fall short of outright regime collapse, Rothman argued the conflict could still leave Iran strategically weakened.
Iran has historically relied on its ballistic missile program and regional proxy network to deter attacks and project influence throughout the Middle East. But many of those proxy forces have been severely weakened since the outbreak of regional hostilities following the October 7 attacks in Israel.
Groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iranian-backed militias across Syria and Iraq have suffered heavy losses over the past two years.
“That entire network is far weaker than it was before,” Rothman said. “That’s part of the reason this conflict is happening now.”
Another factor analysts have watched closely is the possibility of Iranian retaliation beyond the Middle East, including potential attacks on American or Western targets abroad.
For decades, intelligence officials have warned that Iran could activate sleeper cells in North America, Europe, or Latin America in the event of a full-scale war.
Rothman said the threat remains real but has not yet materialized.
“For most of my adult life we’ve been told that Iran maintains sleeper networks capable of conducting attacks against soft targets,” he said. “That threat isn’t imaginary.”
U.S. authorities have previously arrested individuals linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who were accused of planning assassination plots or other attacks inside the United States.
At the same time, Rothman cautioned that sleeper cell operations typically require long preparation periods.
“These kinds of operations don’t happen overnight,” he said. “They take weeks or months of preparation.”
Reports have also circulated about possible internal instability within Iran’s leadership, including speculation about the health of senior officials and disputes over succession within the ruling clerical establishment.
Rothman said such rumors are difficult to verify but acknowledged that divisions within Iran’s political and religious leadership could become more pronounced as pressure on the regime grows.
“There are already tensions within the leadership structure,” he said. “Those divisions could become more visible under the strain of war.”
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s long-term outcome, Rothman said the current campaign reflects a dramatically different strategic environment than existed just a few years ago.
“The window for this kind of operation exists because Iran’s broader network of regional proxies has been significantly degraded,” he said.
Whether the conflict ultimately produces regime change or simply weakens Iran’s military capabilities, Rothman argued that the country will emerge facing new internal and external pressures.
“This regime will be operating under a completely different set of constraints going forward,” he said.