Dan Proft was joined by market analyst and RFD-TV personality Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to talk about a pivotal week in U.S. economic news and the broader implications of Federal Reserve policy, tariffs, and ongoing inflationary concerns.
Shellady, known for his straight-shooting market analysis, predicted that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates at its current meeting, despite political pressure from former President Trump. He explained that while a rate cut could help ease the national debt burden, it’s unlikely to benefit consumers in the housing market due to persistently high asset prices and limited supply.
Shellady pointed to a critical distinction between the short-term interest rates controlled by the Fed and the longer-term rates that impact mortgage lending. He noted that in previous rate-cutting cycles, the expected relief in mortgage costs never materialized because long-term rates actually rose—driven by fears over inflation and mounting U.S. debt.
While lower interest rates might improve affordability on paper, Shellady cautioned that they could also trigger more demand in a still-tight housing market, pushing prices even higher and canceling out any gains. The real issue, he said, is the inflated cost of homes—not just interest rates or housing supply.
Shellady also warned about the ongoing expansion of the money supply (M2), which remains near record highs. That, he said, raises red flags about future inflation even if current consumer prices have moderated. He emphasized that the Fed must consider whether cutting rates would inject even more cash into an already overheated system.
Turning to trade, Shellady addressed the new agreement between the U.S. and the European Union, which includes 15% across-the-board tariffs and significant European investments in American energy and military hardware. He acknowledged that while President Trump framed the deal as the “biggest ever,” it’s more likely a stabilizing measure for markets rather than a paradigm shift in trade policy. Investors, he said, should view the agreement as a sign of clarity rather than dramatic change.
Shellady suggested that the retail investor—”mom and pop” traders—has been propping up the markets since April, while institutional investors have stayed on the sidelines, possibly due to political concerns. He anticipates a short-term pullback in equities, but remains bullish overall through the end of the year.
Finally, Shellady expressed skepticism about cryptocurrency, saying it still lacks a clear purpose for most investors and feels driven more by hype than fundamentals. While he acknowledged growing institutional interest and government engagement, he cautioned that most people still don’t understand what crypto actually does.
As the Fed continues to balance political pressure, inflation data, and a volatile market landscape, Shellady urged caution and realism. The weeks ahead, he said, will offer key signals about the direction of both interest rates and investor sentiment.