On Chicago’s Morning Answer, Dan Proft spoke with Rafael Mangual, senior fellow and head of research for the Manhattan Institute’s policing and public safety initiative, about the persistence of crime concerns in American cities despite official claims of improvement. Mangual, author of Criminal Injustice: What the Push for Mass Decarceration and Depolicing Gets Wrong and Who It Hurts Most, emphasized that statistics showing national declines in violent crime often obscure the lived experiences of urban residents.
The discussion was sparked by New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd’s personal account of her sister’s stolen car in Washington, D.C. Although the vehicle was eventually recovered, it had been used in a string of reckless driving incidents and littered with trash and drug paraphernalia. Dowd noted that the ordeal left her carrying pepper spray again and wary about basic safety. For Mangual, this illustrates the gap between aggregate data and daily realities. “Why are we measuring ourselves now against the worst that things have ever been?” he asked, pointing out that for residents in high-crime neighborhoods, quality-of-life concerns remain far removed from optimistic statistical narratives.
Proft and Mangual highlighted how public officials often tout year-over-year declines in murders and shootings, but citizens are more focused on whether their cars are stolen, their businesses vandalized, or their neighborhoods plagued by disorder. Mangual linked this to the “broken windows” theory of policing, which stresses that visible disorder — graffiti, public drug use, thefts, and harassment — signals a breakdown of law and order, fueling fear and insecurity even if serious violent crime is statistically rare.
The conversation also addressed controversial criminal justice reforms. Mangual criticized policies such as New York’s bail reform and “Raise the Age” law, arguing they have reduced consequences for juveniles and emboldened gangs to push younger members into more serious criminal activity. He cited the 2021 police shooting of 13-year-old Adam Toledo in Chicago as an example of how older offenders exploit these leniencies, with devastating outcomes.
When asked about the recent national decline in violent crime, Mangual attributed it partly to a “regression to the mean” following pandemic disruptions but also to a clear “reassertion of policing.” He noted that arrests, convictions, jail populations, and enforcement activity have been rising again, and that such measures are strongly correlated with lower crime. “More enforcement does have the effect of reducing crime,” Mangual said, pointing out that even the New York Times editorial board has begun to acknowledge this dynamic.
For both Proft and Mangual, the political stakes are high. They argued that dismissing citizens’ day-to-day concerns as mere perceptions risks putting Democrats on the wrong side of a broadly popular issue. As Mangual put it, residents are not reassured by data showing modest improvements if their neighborhoods still feel unsafe.