Market analyst Scott “the Cow Guy” Shellady, host of The Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV, joined Chicago’s Morning Answer to weigh in on the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting, rising inflation, and the future of America’s financial centers.
Shellady said markets were overly optimistic about the planned U.S.–China summit, warning that Beijing’s trade promises rarely match its actions. “For the last 15 years, China’s been investing billions in South America to shift soybean and grain purchases away from the U.S.,” he said. “They’ve already built the ports and infrastructure to make that happen. If they buy from us, it’s ceremonial.” Shellady noted that recent reports of Chinese nationals attempting to bring crop biohazards into the U.S. only deepen the mistrust. “They treat us like an enemy, and we keep pretending they’re partners,” he said.
On inflation, Shellady said Americans should brace for a long-term shift. “Forget the 2% target — that’s a pipe dream,” he said. “We’re looking at 3 to 3.5% inflation for the foreseeable future.” He explained that the federal government’s exploding debt means the only practical path forward is to “inflate our way out,” even though that will further squeeze working families. “Inflation widens the gap between the rich and the poor,” Shellady warned. “The wealthy can hedge; the middle class can’t. If we lose the middle class, the whole economy collapses in on itself.”
Shellady also criticized city leaders in New York and Chicago for policies that could drive away financial exchanges and major employers. “These people don’t understand business,” he said. “Exchanges are just servers now — they can be moved to Miami or Texas over a weekend.” He added that proposals like Chicago’s $21-per-employee tax or New York’s financial transaction tax show how out of touch local governments have become. “They’re taxing the very thing that keeps them alive,” he said.
Shellady expressed concern about a growing overlap between legitimate market speculation and gambling, as exchanges like the CME and NYSE partner with sports betting firms. “We spent decades telling the world our exchanges served an important economic purpose,” he said. “Now we’re blurring that line by turning them into betting platforms. That’s a slippery slope.”
He concluded with a warning about the broader economic picture: “The debt’s climbing by a trillion dollars every few weeks. Inflation’s not going away, China’s not changing, and the middle class is falling behind. If we don’t wake up soon, the markets won’t be the only thing that moves south.”