Retired Colonel Jim Carafano of the Heritage Foundation argued during a Fox News appearance that the United States now holds its strongest position in the Middle East since the end of World War II. Carafano pointed to deepening cooperation with the Iraqi government, a newly finalized oil infrastructure agreement, and eroding Iranian militia influence in the region as evidence of long-term strategic gains, even as American forces continue to sustain casualties. Proft pushed back somewhat on the framing, arguing that while Iran has clearly been weakened, the administration’s original core objectives regarding the country’s nuclear capability and control of the Strait of Hormuz remain unmet.
Proft welcomed Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute’s Iran program, to assess the state of the conflict. Brodsky agreed that President Trump has combined economic and military pressure against Iran more aggressively than any American president since the 1979 revolution, significantly degrading the regime’s ability to project power beyond its borders. However, he cautioned that Iran remains a serious threat and that several key objectives remain unresolved, including the continued contested status of the Strait of Hormuz and the fate of Iran’s remaining nuclear infrastructure.
Much of the conversation focused on reported intelligence suggesting Iran has relocated centrifuges to a deeply buried facility known as Pickaxe Mountain, a site Brodsky said may ultimately require a ground operation rather than airstrikes alone to fully neutralize, given the risks associated with a facility that international inspectors have reportedly been barred from accessing. Brodsky also addressed recent public comments from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who said in an interview that he has had no direct communication with Iran’s Supreme Leader either before or during the conflict. Brodsky called the admission an unusual moment of candor that raises serious questions about the coherence of Iran’s decision-making structure and whether the country’s diplomatic apparatus is capable of reaching any durable agreement with the United States. He said Araghchi has faced backlash within Iran’s political establishment for the disclosure.
Brodsky also addressed escalating rhetoric from Iranian-backed proxy forces, including a recent announcement by Houthi forces in Yemen declaring a blockade on Saudi maritime navigation, which he said reflects continued direction from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which maintains representation on Houthi decision-making structures. Asked about recent comments from broadcaster Megan Kelly suggesting Israel plays an outsized role in shaping American public opinion through social media manipulation, Brodsky rejected the characterization, arguing that Russia, China, and Qatar represent far larger sources of online influence operations, and noted the comments came amid a broader rise in antisemitic content across social platforms.
Brodsky also discussed recent remarks from Secretary of State Marco Rubio arguing that the United States has borne a disproportionate share of the cost of protecting international shipping through the strait, despite few of the vessels involved being U.S.-flagged or destined for American ports. Brodsky said the Trump administration’s frustration extends beyond Gulf state partners to European allies, who he said have largely declined to participate in demining or security operations in the strait absent a broader diplomatic resolution, despite their own economic dependence on the waterway. He said continued nightly military operations aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to threaten shipping suggest the administration intends to establish more permanent control over the strait, and expressed hope that Iran’s continued aggression toward regional shipping will ultimately help the United States build broader international support for that effort.